Changes in weather extremes: Assessment of return values using high resolution climate simulations at convection-resolving scale
Meteorologische Zeitschrift. Bd. 19. H. 1. Schweizerbart 2010 S. 11 - 23
Erscheinungsjahr: 2010
Publikationstyp: Zeitschriftenaufsatz
Sprache: Deutsch
Doi/URN: 10.1127/0941-2948/2010/0424
Inhaltszusammenfassung
Global and regional climate models are currently employed on horizontal resolutions down to 10 km. State-of-the-art numerical weather predicition (NWP) models are already used at the kilometer-scale. At this resolution explicit calculation of convection becomes feasible and effects of small-scale topographic features and land use structures can be accounted for. It is assumed that consequently extremes like wind gusts, thunderstorms or heavy rain will be modeled more realistically. COSMO-CLM ...Global and regional climate models are currently employed on horizontal resolutions down to 10 km. State-of-the-art numerical weather predicition (NWP) models are already used at the kilometer-scale. At this resolution explicit calculation of convection becomes feasible and effects of small-scale topographic features and land use structures can be accounted for. It is assumed that consequently extremes like wind gusts, thunderstorms or heavy rain will be modeled more realistically. COSMO-CLM is the climate version of the NWP model of the COSMO consortium. It has been employed in simulations at 1,3 km resolution over the region of Rhineland-Palatinate. Two time slices of 10 years (1960-69 and 2015-24) show changes in extremes for the IPCC A1B scenario. A ”peaks over threshold” (POT) extreme value analysis gives information about changes in extremes of near-surface wind speed, screen level temperature and precipitation. Moving block bootstrapping is used for the assessment of the stability of the POT method. Regionalization of the extreme value analysis shows that mountaineous regions will experience the strongest change in daily minimum temperature extremes while in flat and lowland region daily maximum temperature extremes change most. The changes in wind speed tend around zero, in the mean as well as in the extremes. Our study shows that there is an added value through the better resolution of the meteorological variability.» weiterlesen» einklappen
Klassifikation
DDC Sachgruppe:
Naturwissenschaften
